Billion-Dollar Tax Rebate Window Opens, Cargo Theft Severely Underestimated, FMC Triple-Rejects Maersk: The "Prism" of U.S. Logistics

On April 20, the CAPE system went live, marking the official start of the operational phase for the $166 billion tariff refund. Over 56,000 importers have completed registration, with the first batch processing approximately $127 billion.

But this is not the end of the story. Treasury Secretary Besant has made it clear: related tariffs could be reinstated as early as July this year under new legal authority. The refund window may be shorter than many expect.

Meanwhile, the true scale of cargo theft losses has been exposed, potentially reaching $60 billion—ten times the official figure. And in a third blow, the FMC rejected Maersk’s surcharge waiver application for the third time, publicly criticizing carriers for being “underprepared for the crisis.”

Three events, three dimensions, all pointing to the same conclusion: the rules of U.S. liner logistics are being rewritten, and many have yet to realize it.

The primary goal of launching the CAPE system was to avoid the estimated 4.4 million man-hours required for manual processing. Yet, on its first day of operation, technical issues emerged, with some importers reporting obstacles in the declaration process.

Treasury Secretary Besant has explicitly stated that the related tariffs could be reinstated as early as this July under new legal authority. This suggests the rebate window may be shorter than anticipated. Importers must act swiftly to complete their declarations, or they could face the awkward situation of “just getting a rebate only to have to pay again soon after.”

Official data claims cargo theft losses account for only 0.0036% of total freight value. However, an in-depth investigation by FreightWaves has revealed a starkly different truth: this figure may be underestimated by more than tenfold.

Why?​

Because only 10%-15% of freight theft incidents are formally reported. Most companies choose to classify these losses as "operational shrinkage" and absorb them quietly.

More Severe: The Chain of Hidden Costs​

Direct cargo loss is just the tip of the iceberg. Recovery efforts, rerouting, inventory gaps, insurance claims, and customer attrition—each link in this chain erodes profits.

Currently, states like California, Texas, and Florida have established dedicated cargo security task forces, while two related bills are advancing at the federal level. Cargo security is rapidly evolving from an "operational issue" to a "policy priority."

Maersk submitted its third application to the FMC for a waiver of the 30-day notice period, seeking to quickly implement an emergency fuel surcharge. For the third time, it was rejected.

The Iran conflict led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp spike in global marine fuel prices. The price of Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) soared from 509pertoninearlyFebruaryto929 per ton within just one month—a jump of approximately 83%.

FMC Chairperson DeBella’s response was unequivocal:

“Market warnings about regional conflict risks existed well in advance; this did not come out of nowhere.” She suggested carriers should have developed contingency plans earlier, rather than hastily seeking regulatory waivers after the crisis erupted.

Reportedly, Maersk initially downplayed fuel information disclosure partly because the crisis coincided with sensitive annual contract negotiations with key clients. Maersk later postponed the proposed surcharge effective date from April 9 to April 17, but approval was still withheld.

Regulators are demanding higher standards for carriers’ “crisis preparedness.” In the future, the room for “seeking waivers after the fact” is likely to shrink significantly.

The 2026 Annual Survey of the Top 100 Logistics Companies, released by Transport Topics, has reached a conclusion that, while perhaps expected, remains noteworthy: frequent changes in tariff policy have become the most critical business challenge facing third-party logistics providers (3PLs) in North America.

Maintaining service stability amidst policy uncertainty is becoming a key dimension of differentiation for 3PLs.

Money is being returned, but the window may close soon. Theft is rampant, yet losses are severely underestimated. Costs are rising, but regulators are no longer quick to grant waivers. The rules are changing, yet many companies are still operating with old maps.

A $166 billion refund, 56,000 registered importers, 330,000 potential applicants—these figures are large, but the ones who will truly secure a safe payout are those with clean compliance records, accurate declaration data, and the ability to withstand audits.

For everyone else, it may be best to just observe this wave of refunds from a distance.