According to a Xinhua News Agency report on March 1st, an unauthorized oil tanker was hit while attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced on the evening of February 28th that it prohibits any vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Real-time data from the International Oil Tanker Traffic Monitoring System shows that the speed of oil tankers in the waters around the Strait of Hormuz has generally dropped to zero, with a large number of ships停航 (suspending navigation) to avoid danger.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, and is the necessary route for crude oil exports from Middle Eastern oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. The oil transported through this strait accounts for about one-fifth of the total global oil transportation volume.

Multiple shipping researchers told Shanghai Securities News reporters that the rapid deterioration of the situation in the Middle East will further drive up shipping prices, with oil shipping prices being the most noteworthy.

Before the drastic changes in the Middle East situation, the freight rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) had already risen rapidly, with daily charter rates for the Middle East to China route exceeding $170,000, a significant increase from the beginning of the year. As of February 26, the BDTI (Baltic Dirty Tanker Index) VLCC TD3C route TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) was reported at $209,000/day, reaching a new high since April 2020.

The intensification of geopolitical conflicts will further push up VLCC freight rates. From historical experience, it is difficult for the Strait of Hormuz to be truly closed for a long time, but in the short term, various types of ships are highly likely to navigate cautiously, and freight rates on relevant routes will remain strong.

An insider from a domestic oil tanker transportation company told reporters that the typical characteristics of the oil shipping industry are highly concentrated customers and non-standardized products, which directly leads to single shipowners often being price takers rather than price makers in the market. The supply-demand gap determines the direction, and capacity utilization determines price elasticity.

Looking back at history, VLCC-TCE (Very Large Crude Carrier Time Charter Equivalent) has reached approximately $250,000/day twice, with limited effective capacity being the main reason. The tightness of effective supply has a traceable impact on the release of VLCC freight rate elasticity. Currently, the oil tanker supply is once again in such a situation.

In addition to the Middle East situation, the United States' crackdown on Venezuela and takeover of its crude oil trade earlier this year has accelerated the phasing out of the "shadow fleet," significantly driving up VLCC freight rates to some extent.

Recently, South Korea's Sinokor Shipping has become an industry "disruptor" by sweeping up VLCC capacity in the market through purchases and leases. Sinokor has increased its controlled capacity from 26 vessels to 118, accounting for 13.0% of the global share. If the "shadow fleet" unable to operate in the compliant market is further excluded, its share reaches 16.1%. Sinokor also intends to control capacity deployment by delaying vessel deliveries, exacerbating supply tightness.

A senior transportation researcher told a reporter from Shanghai Securities News that seasonality, VLCC delivery pace, and tanker turnaround times are core factors. The second quarter may be a key window period to observe how Sinokor's "stop sailing to support prices" strategy changes.

China's major oil shipping company, COSCO Shipping, stated in its investor relations activity record sheet that the global key non-compliant oil shipping market is expected to further transform into a compliant market, which will affect global crude oil transportation flows. By 2026, new VLCC capacity is expected to be insufficient to compensate for the decline in efficiency of older vessels and the exit of Western-restricted vessels from the compliant market. The tight supply-demand situation in the compliant market is expected to continue, with the freight rate center likely to be higher than in 2025.

Regarding other maritime sub-sectors, a recent shipping report from CITIC Futures mentioned: In container shipping, Middle East container volume accounts for about 5% of the global total; the Strait of Hormuz alone accounts for 3% of global container throughput, with an average vessel size of about 6600 TEU (20-foot equivalent unit). In the short term, Middle East routes are the most directly affected, with a relatively reduced impact on Mediterranean routes, and a relatively longer transmission path for direct impact on European routes. From the perspective of geopolitical premium support, all routes may stop falling and rise in the short term. The overall impact on the dry bulk shipping market may be limited. LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) and LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) vessels are relatively loose, but the Middle East accounts for a relatively high proportion of shipments, and may also be in a state of following the upward trend. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the developments and the operational status of the Strait of Hormuz, and to secure shipping transportation resources in advance.

The strong oil shipping market will drive an increase in tanker orders. Data from industry consulting firms such as Clarksons shows that as of February 2026, the global VLCC order book as a percentage of existing capacity has risen to 18.77%. From a static delivery perspective, the total deliveries in 2026 will be between 30 and 40 vessels, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. In the industry's view, a mere 3% increase in capacity is unlikely to resolve the current supply tightness.